Mike's journal

My Random Election Notes

Here is a plot of the chances of the respective candidate winning - Obama in blue, Romney in red.  The solid lines are from a model developed by Nate Silver for the New York Times.  The model uses state (notably the swing states) and national polls along with other factors and events to predict the results of the Electoral College vote and thus, the winner.  The dotted lines are from various online markets and sports betting sites.
Here is a plot of predictions of the Electoral College vote.  I am giving each challenger half of the undetermined votes from each source.  CNN, Rasmussen and ABC all show the same results.  It's not apparent from their website if they are all reporting on the same model or what.

I'm thinking, hey if Romney wins, well we survived two terms of Bush.  Let's see..

• Two expensive wars that don't seem to make a lot of sense - can you say "weapons of mass destruction"?
• A financial meltdown.
• A horrendous increase in the deficit.
• IMO, a loss of respect in the international arena through an ego-centric, "big stick" foreign policy.
• ...

With Romney, expect

• Another war (say Iran).  Although Romney appears to be rather two-faced so hard to tell if he actually has a foreign policy position and if he does, what it is.
• Another financial crisis - either by pissing off the Chinese so that they stop buying Treasury Notes or via some financial shell game as the protection put in place to try to rein in greed is dismantled.
• Higher overall taxes unless you are millionare+ class.  I believe his "47 percent" speech was the real Romney.
• Cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
• Cuts to common good, common sense programs - PBS, the arts and sciences, public health programs, etc.
• A lot of influence from the extreme right in setting policy.  Witness Todd Akins' "legitimate rape" and Richard Mourdock's rape/God's intentions remarks, and Romney's inability to disavow these remarks.  Not much backbone.  Scary when you think about picking Supreme Court justices.

I think that if the GOP takes the White House, it would send a very bad message to young people and the world that obstructionism and bullying works.  It is pretty clear that the Republican strategy over the past 4 years has been to do whatever they can to disrupt any progress in Obama's first term - using a scorched-earth strategy.  [refs]  If they are able to win with this strategy, IMO it will only make rational and civil governance scarcer in the future.
 
My favorite gaffes:

• WATCH: Full Secret Video of Private Romney Fundraiser - the "47 percent" video.. classic
• Oh Doctor: Romney Instagram Etch-a-Sketches Campaign Photo - photoshopping a rally to make it look larger