My Random Election Notes
Last updated: Man-O-War, 6 Nov 2012
Here is a plot of the chances of the respective candidate winning - Obama in blue, Romney in red.  The solid lines are from a model developed by Nate Silver for the New York Times.  The model uses state (notably the swing states) and national polls along with other factors and events to predict the results of the Electoral College vote and thus, the winner.  The dotted lines are from various online markets and sports betting sites.
Last updated: 6 Nov 2012 16:15 EDT
These were accumulated from:

Here is a plot of predictions of the Electoral College vote.  I am giving each challenger half of the undetermined votes from each source.  CNN, Rasmussen and ABC all show the same results.  It's not apparent from their website if they are all reporting on the same model or what.

11 Nov 2012
The blue and red X's mark the final result.  Remember that I was giving half of the undetermined votes to each candidate in the plots leading up to the end, but Votamatic seems to have nailed it.  And except for a little wiggle at the end, had it right for a good long time.

I'm thinking, hey if Romney wins, well we survived two terms of Bush.  Let's see..
  • Two expensive wars that don't seem to make a lot of sense - can you say "weapons of mass destruction"?
  • A financial meltdown.
  • A horrendous increase in the deficit.
  • IMO, a loss of respect in the international arena through an ego-centric, "big stick" foreign policy.
  • ...
With Romney, expect
  • Another war (say Iran).  Although Romney appears to be rather two-faced so hard to tell if he actually has a foreign policy position and if he does, what it is.
  • Another financial crisis - either by pissing off the Chinese so that they stop buying Treasury Notes or via some financial shell game as the protection put in place to try to rein in greed is dismantled.
  • Higher overall taxes unless you are millionare+ class.  I believe his "47 percent" speech was the real Romney.
  • Cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
  • Cuts to common good, common sense programs - PBS, the arts and sciences, public health programs, etc.
  • A lot of influence from the extreme right in setting policy.  Witness Todd Akins' "legitimate rape" and Richard Mourdock's rape/God's intentions remarks, and Romney's inability to disavow these remarks.  Not much backbone.  Scary when you think about picking Supreme Court justices.

I think that if the GOP takes the White House, it would send a very bad message to young people and the world that obstructionism and bullying works.  It is pretty clear that the Republican strategy over the past 4 years has been to do whatever they can to disrupt any progress in Obama's first term - using a scorched-earth strategy.  [refs]  If they are able to win with this strategy, IMO it will only make rational and civil governance scarcer in the future.
My favorite gaffes:
  • shows the odds against the event occurring.  Here is what they say about converting odds to probabilies:
    The odds are an indication of what the odds layer thinks is the probability of a participant winning an event. If you were to add up the probabilities of each participant they have to total exactly 100% (one participant - but only one - must win). You can calculate the probabilities from the odds, as seen in the example table below. To calculate the percentage, divide 100 by the sum of the two parts of the ratio and then multiply the result by the second part of the ratio. For 11-4 this works out as 100 divided by 15 (11 plus 4) equals 6.666. This multiplied by 4 gives 26.67 Converting the odds to percentages is particularly useful for calculating the over-round.
    Odds (all odds against) Percentage / Probability
    1-1 (Evens) 50.00
    5-4 44.44
    7-4 36.36
    2-1 33.33
    11-4 26.67
    4-1 20.00
    5-1 16.67
    6-1 14.29
    7-1 12.50
    11-1 8.33
    16-1 5.88
    20-1 4.76
    33-1 2.94
    100-1 0.99